# Decision Passport: Private Credit Decision Twin: $120M senior secured facility

*AbrahamMoses Decision Twin (demonstration). Evidence Today. Wisdom Tomorrow. Evidence informs. Humans decide. The system preserves the reasoning.*

> Illustrative and synthetic. Not a real borrower, lender or credit decision.

- **Passport ID:** `DP1-eyJhIjp7ImNvbmNlbnRyYXRpb24iOjIyLCJjb3ZNYXgiOjMuNSwiZGVidCI6MTI0LCJncm93dGgiOjEyLCJpbnRlcmVzdCI6MTAuNSwibWFyZ2luIjoxNy41LCJtaW5MaXEiOjEwLCJyZWplY3RlZCI6W10sInZlcmlmaWVkIjpbIkRPQy0wMSIsIkRPQy0xMCJdfSwiY2FzZSI6IkRULVBDLTAwMSIsImNhc2VWZXJzaW9uIjoiMS4wLjAiLCJlIjoiMS4wLjAiLCJ0IjoiMjAyNi0xMC0yMVQwMTo1Mjo1MVoiLCJ2IjozfQ.S-eyJhbGciOiJFZDI1NTE5IiwiaXNzdWVkX2F0IjoiMjAyNi0xMC0yMVQwMTo1Mjo1MVoiLCJraWQiOiJlZDI1NTE5LWUzMWMyZDgyZGE5MmExMTQiLCJ2YWx1ZSI6ImRmUVFXZllsQ2ZLRHlMQ0dCcjMzLWtibVN6Qms1UVdKYWtTSEtYbVhpeXN3dW0xTkZOSVhXOVQ4dDlJYUEwclNKci1BMFhpQlpTSjdQVkUzVTA1OUFBIn0`
- **Generated:** 2026-10-21T01:52:51Z
- **Case:** DT-PC-001 v1.0.0 (Exemplar Industrial Holdings (fictional)); archived case data SHA-256 `248623021f23b82b9f1921142a9a49b6ea1239ead04b7c22b53502f7be9c7caf`
- **Question:** Should the committee approve the proposed facility under the specified conditions?
- **Status:** SIMULATED: demonstration only. No credit decision has been made.
- **Reviewer:** none (simulated decision)
- **Ruleset:** dr-rules-1.0.0; model: none (deterministic rules; no AI model)
- **Engine:** dt-engine-1.0.0, source SHA-256 `9e4eae8ae339afdeee285fa818f3a53295cc2fca6d39d35822113a4c669b9241` (frozen, src/lib/decision/engines/v1)
- **SHA-256:** `b9b84403e09865f0e36e402e27afefcfeb096e1df461e3ecfd4c4521d72406b0`
- **Signature:** valid as issued; Ed25519, key ed25519-e31c2d82da92a114, issued 2026-10-21T01:52:51Z (/.well-known/abrahammoses-passport-keys.json): `dfQQWfYlCfKDyLCGBr33-kbmSzBk5QWJakSHKXmXiyswum1NFNIXW9T8t9IaA0rSJr-A0XiBZSJ7PVE3U059AA`
- The SHA-256 hash shows the passport is unchanged since it was generated. A signature, when present, was made once at issuance over this hash, the key id and the issue time, and shows who issued it (the holder of the published key). Neither shows that the content is correct, and neither is a third-party attestation.
- Decision support only. This passport is an evidentiary and governance record. It is not a binding decision, an audit opinion, a regulatory approval or a certification; the responsible institution keeps responsibility for any decision.

## Decision configuration

- **Configuration:** dr-config-1.0.0
- **Objective:** Decide whether the synthetic $120M facility can go to a (simulated) credit committee, and on which conditions.
- **Evidence standard:** Every figure used in a calculation must trace to a named source document. Unverified documents may inform the analysis but cannot by themselves satisfy a condition; the verification condition stays unmet until they are verified by a human.
- **Approval policy:** propose / review / reject / approve. The system may only propose. Review, rejection and approval are human actions by authorized people. In this public demonstration no human action is recorded and nothing is approved.

| State | Assumption | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIXED | Revenue FY2025 | $260M | DOC-01 |
| FIXED | Reported EBITDA margin FY2025 | 16% | DOC-01 |
| FIXED | Cash at close | $15M | DOC-03 |
| FIXED | Undrawn RCF | $20M | DOC-03 |
| FIXED | Minimum interest cover | 3x | DOC-05 |
| FIXED | Customer concentration policy limit | 25% | DOC-04 |
| FIXED | Stress EBITDA decline | 20% | DOC-04 |
| ADJUSTABLE | Revenue growth FY2026 | 12% | DOC-02 |
| ADJUSTABLE | EBITDA margin | 17.5% | DOC-02 |
| ADJUSTABLE | Total debt at close | $124M | DOC-03 |
| ADJUSTABLE | Annual interest expense | $10.5M | DOC-03 |
| ADJUSTABLE | Leverage covenant ceiling | 3.5x | DOC-05 |
| ADJUSTABLE | Minimum liquidity requirement | $10M | DOC-05 |
| ADJUSTABLE | Top customer share of revenue | 22% | DOC-07 |
| DISPUTED | P1: Management’s 12% revenue growth for FY2026 is achievable. | accepted | DOC-02 |
| DISPUTED | P2: Management’s 17.5% EBITDA margin for FY2026 is achievable. | accepted | DOC-02 |
| DISPUTED | P3: The top customer renews on current terms in Q1 2027. | accepted | DOC-02, DOC-07 |

**Escalation rules**

- A condition with missing evidence (EVIDENCE_MISSING) is escalated to a human before any recommendation.
- A confirmed contradiction between sources is escalated until a human resolves which source governs.
- An unresolved interpretation of a contract term is escalated to legal review.
- A different reporting basis is shown side by side and is not escalated as a conflict.

**Monitoring triggers**

- A new or revised source document for this case (planned; no monitoring runs in the demonstration).
- Top customer renewal outcome in Q1 2027 (DOC-07).
- Collateral appraisal received (DOC-08).
- Covenant headroom below the configured threshold in a new compliance certificate.

## Conclusion

5 of 9 conditions met; 1 not met; 2 need human judgment; 1 missing evidence. No approval is made here.

## Conditions

| Condition | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Debt / EBITDA within the leverage covenant | MET | 2.43x ≤ 3.5x |
| Interest coverage at least 3.00x | MET | 4.85x ≥ 3x |
| Liquidity above the minimum requirement | MET | headroom $25.0M |
| Top customer at most 25% of revenue (policy) | MET | 22% ≤ 25% |
| Stress case leverage within the covenant | MET | 3.04x ≤ 3.5x |
| Key documents verified (financials, debt schedule, loan agreement) | NOT_MET | unverified: DOC-03, DOC-05 |
| Total debt reconciled between memo and debt schedule | NEEDS_HUMAN_JUDGMENT | memo $118.0M vs schedule $124.0M; calculations use $124M |
| Covenant EBITDA definition agreed | NEEDS_HUMAN_JUDGMENT | draft agreement has no add-back cap; term sheet caps add-backs at 10% |
| Collateral value supported by the cited appraisal | EVIDENCE_MISSING | appraisal A-2026-03 is not in the data room |

## Calculations

| Measure | Value | Formula |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth used | 12.0% | P1 accepted ? growth input : FY2025 actual growth |
| EBITDA margin used | 17.5% | P2 accepted ? margin input : FY2025 reported margin |
| FY2026 revenue | $291.2M | FY2025 revenue ($260M) × (1 + growth) × (P3 accepted ? 1 : 1 − top customer share ÷ 2) |
| FY2026 EBITDA | $51.0M | Revenue × EBITDA margin |
| Debt / EBITDA | 2.43x | Total debt ÷ EBITDA |
| Interest coverage | 4.85x | EBITDA ÷ annual interest expense |
| Liquidity at close | $35.0M | Cash at close ($15M) + undrawn revolver ($20M) |
| Liquidity headroom | $25.0M | Liquidity − minimum liquidity requirement |
| Leverage covenant headroom | 30.5% (1.07x) | (Covenant ceiling − Debt/EBITDA) ÷ covenant ceiling = how far EBITDA can fall before a breach |
| Stress case EBITDA (−20%) | $40.8M | EBITDA × (1 − 20%) |
| Stress case Debt / EBITDA | 3.04x | Total debt ÷ stress case EBITDA |
| Stress case interest coverage | 3.88x | Stress case EBITDA ÷ annual interest expense |

## Premises

- P1 (accepted): Management’s 12% revenue growth for FY2026 is achievable. [DOC-02]
- P2 (accepted): Management’s 17.5% EBITDA margin for FY2026 is achievable. [DOC-02]
- P3 (accepted): The top customer renews on current terms in Q1 2027. [DOC-02, DOC-07]

## Warnings

- Forecast growth well above history and sector outlook: 12.0% growth against 4.0% in FY2025 and a 4.5% sector outlook
- Forecast relies on the top customer renewing: 22% of revenue renews in Q1 2027; the customer has signalled dual-sourcing
- Calculations rely on unverified documents: DOC-03, DOC-05 not verified

## Conflicts and evidence gaps

- X-01 CONFIRMED_CONFLICT: Total debt at close. Reconcile the two figures before the committee relies on either. The calculations default to the higher, itemised figure.
- X-02 POTENTIAL_CONFLICT: Top customer volumes. Ask management for evidence of the customer’s FY2026 orders; test the case with premise P3 rejected.
- X-03 DIFFERENT_REPORTING_BASIS (not a conflict): EBITDA: $41.6M vs $46.8M. None required for consistency. Which definition the covenant uses is a separate question (X-05).
- X-04 MISSING_EVIDENCE (not a conflict): PP&E appraisal not provided. Obtain the appraisal (committee question Q3).
- X-05 UNRESOLVED_INTERPRETATION (not a conflict): Which EBITDA the leverage covenant uses. Counsel and the deal team agree the definition; the draft is conformed to the term sheet or the difference is approved.

## Open questions for human judgment

- Total debt reconciled between memo and debt schedule: memo $118.0M vs schedule $124.0M; calculations use $124M
- Covenant EBITDA definition agreed: draft agreement has no add-back cap; term sheet caps add-backs at 10%
- Collateral value supported by the cited appraisal: appraisal A-2026-03 is not in the data room

## Sources

| ID | Title | Date | Verification | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOC-01 | Audited financial statements FY2025 | 2026-03-15 | verified | `7881d86346c9d53f…` |
| DOC-02 | Management forecast FY2026 | 2026-05-02 | unverified | `73232bfd86a0b964…` |
| DOC-03 | Pro forma debt schedule at close | 2026-06-30 | unverified | `64263f2e0991c110…` |
| DOC-04 | Credit memo (draft for committee) | 2026-07-08 | unverified | `8236b02741ff274a…` |
| DOC-05 | Draft loan agreement (financial covenants) | 2026-07-01 | unverified | `afbe7848997bde0c…` |
| DOC-06 | Covenant definitions schedule (term sheet) | 2026-05-20 | unverified | `f154d4cb10fe370e…` |
| DOC-07 | Customer concentration report | 2026-06-12 | unverified | `34230621b4ea44c4…` |
| DOC-08 | Collateral summary | 2026-06-28 | unverified | `6abc6a976c897828…` |
| DOC-09 | Independent assessment note | 2026-06-20 | unverified | `4ffc6959a461b519…` |
| DOC-10 | Risk committee questions | 2026-07-10 | verified | `e39ad77e7b361167…` |

## Audit history

- 2026-10-21T01:52:51Z passport_generated: From case DT-PC-001 v1.0.0 (archived, sha256 248623021f23b82b…) with ruleset dr-rules-1.0.0.

## Reproducibility

Open this passport ID at /institutional/decision-room/passport/{id} or call GET /api/institutional/decision-room/passport/verify?id={id}&sha256={hash}. The ID encodes the case version, the engine version and every input; the passport is rebuilt from that archived case version with that frozen engine, so the same passport and hash are produced with no stored state.