AbrahamMoses Decision Twin · Decision Passport · Simulated
Decision Passport: Private Credit Decision Twin: $120M senior secured facility
Synthetic demonstration The borrower, lender, documents and figures are fictional. No bank, fund or institution has reviewed, validated or used this. The calculations are deterministic rules, not AI, and not a credit model: no probability of default is estimated and nothing here is credit advice or an approval.
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Decision support only. This passport is an evidentiary and governance record. It is not a binding decision, an audit opinion, a regulatory approval or a certification; the responsible institution keeps responsibility for any decision.
Conclusion
5 of 9 conditions met; 1 not met; 2 need human judgment; 1 missing evidence. No approval is made here.
| Condition | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Debt / EBITDA within the leverage covenant | Met | 2.43x ≤ 3.5x |
| Interest coverage at least 3.00x | Met | 4.85x ≥ 3x |
| Liquidity above the minimum requirement | Met | headroom $25.0M |
| Top customer at most 25% of revenue (policy) | Met | 22% ≤ 25% |
| Stress case leverage within the covenant | Met | 3.04x ≤ 3.5x |
| Key documents verified (financials, debt schedule, loan agreement) | Not met | unverified: DOC-03, DOC-05 |
| Total debt reconciled between memo and debt schedule | Needs human judgment | memo $118.0M vs schedule $124.0M; calculations use $124M |
| Covenant EBITDA definition agreed | Needs human judgment | draft agreement has no add-back cap; term sheet caps add-backs at 10% |
| Collateral value supported by the cited appraisal | Evidence missing | appraisal A-2026-03 is not in the data room |
Open questions for human judgment
- Total debt reconciled between memo and debt schedule: memo $118.0M vs schedule $124.0M; calculations use $124M
- Covenant EBITDA definition agreed: draft agreement has no add-back cap; term sheet caps add-backs at 10%
- Collateral value supported by the cited appraisal: appraisal A-2026-03 is not in the data room
Assumptions, premises and scenarios
- Revenue growth 12% · EBITDA margin 17.5% · total debt $124M · interest $10.5M
- Covenant ceiling 3.5x · minimum liquidity $10M · top customer 22%
- Documents treated as verified: DOC-01, DOC-10
- P1 accepted: Management’s 12% revenue growth for FY2026 is achievable.
- P2 accepted: Management’s 17.5% EBITDA margin for FY2026 is achievable.
- P3 accepted: The top customer renews on current terms in Q1 2027.
- Base: leverage 2.43x, coverage 4.85x. Stress: EBITDA $40.8M, leverage 3.04x, coverage 3.88x.
Decision configuration (snapshot)
- fixed · Revenue FY2025: $260M (DOC-01)
- fixed · Reported EBITDA margin FY2025: 16% (DOC-01)
- fixed · Cash at close: $15M (DOC-03)
- fixed · Undrawn RCF: $20M (DOC-03)
- fixed · Minimum interest cover: 3x (DOC-05)
- fixed · Customer concentration policy limit: 25% (DOC-04)
- fixed · Stress EBITDA decline: 20% (DOC-04)
- adjustable · Revenue growth FY2026: 12% (DOC-02)
- adjustable · EBITDA margin: 17.5% (DOC-02)
- adjustable · Total debt at close: $124M (DOC-03)
- adjustable · Annual interest expense: $10.5M (DOC-03)
- adjustable · Leverage covenant ceiling: 3.5x (DOC-05)
- adjustable · Minimum liquidity requirement: $10M (DOC-05)
- adjustable · Top customer share of revenue: 22% (DOC-07)
- disputed · P1: Management’s 12% revenue growth for FY2026 is achievable.: accepted (DOC-02)
- disputed · P2: Management’s 17.5% EBITDA margin for FY2026 is achievable.: accepted (DOC-02)
- disputed · P3: The top customer renews on current terms in Q1 2027.: accepted (DOC-02, DOC-07)
Calculations
| Measure | Value | Formula |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth used | 12.0% | P1 accepted ? growth input : FY2025 actual growth |
| EBITDA margin used | 17.5% | P2 accepted ? margin input : FY2025 reported margin |
| FY2026 revenue | $291.2M | FY2025 revenue ($260M) × (1 + growth) × (P3 accepted ? 1 : 1 − top customer share ÷ 2) |
| FY2026 EBITDA | $51.0M | Revenue × EBITDA margin |
| Debt / EBITDA | 2.43x | Total debt ÷ EBITDA |
| Interest coverage | 4.85x | EBITDA ÷ annual interest expense |
| Liquidity at close | $35.0M | Cash at close ($15M) + undrawn revolver ($20M) |
| Liquidity headroom | $25.0M | Liquidity − minimum liquidity requirement |
| Leverage covenant headroom | 30.5% (1.07x) | (Covenant ceiling − Debt/EBITDA) ÷ covenant ceiling = how far EBITDA can fall before a breach |
| Stress case EBITDA (−20%) | $40.8M | EBITDA × (1 − 20%) |
| Stress case Debt / EBITDA | 3.04x | Total debt ÷ stress case EBITDA |
| Stress case interest coverage | 3.88x | Stress case EBITDA ÷ annual interest expense |
Arguments (Adversarial Chamber, deterministic rules)
- supporting: Debt / EBITDA within the leverage covenant: 2.43x ≤ 3.5x.
- supporting: Interest coverage at least 3.00x: 4.85x ≥ 3x.
- supporting: Liquidity above the minimum requirement: headroom $25.0M.
- supporting: Top customer at most 25% of revenue (policy): 22% ≤ 25%.
- supporting: Stress case leverage within the covenant: 3.04x ≤ 3.5x.
- opposing: Key documents verified (financials, debt schedule, loan agreement): not met (unverified: DOC-03, DOC-05).
- supporting: Premise P1 accepted: Management’s 12% revenue growth for FY2026 is achievable.
- supporting: Premise P2 accepted: Management’s 17.5% EBITDA margin for FY2026 is achievable.
- supporting: Premise P3 accepted: The top customer renews on current terms in Q1 2027.
- opposing: Forecast growth well above history and sector outlook: 12.0% growth against 4.0% in FY2025 and a 4.5% sector outlook.
- opposing: Forecast relies on the top customer renewing: 22% of revenue renews in Q1 2027; the customer has signalled dual-sourcing.
- opposing: Calculations rely on unverified documents: DOC-03, DOC-05 not verified.
- auditor: DOC-03 (Pro forma debt schedule at close) is unverified; 7 calculation(s) or condition(s) cite it.
- auditor: DOC-05 (Draft loan agreement (financial covenants)) is unverified; 8 calculation(s) or condition(s) cite it.
- auditor: Confirmed conflict X-01: Total debt at close. Reconcile the two figures before the committee relies on either. The calculations default to the higher, itemised figure.
- auditor: Potential conflict X-02: Top customer volumes. Ask management for evidence of the customer’s FY2026 orders; test the case with premise P3 rejected.
- auditor: X-03 (EBITDA: $41.6M vs $46.8M) is a difference of reporting basis, not a conflict.
- auditor: Missing evidence X-04: PP&E appraisal not provided. Obtain the appraisal (committee question Q3).
- auditor: Unresolved interpretation X-05: Which EBITDA the leverage covenant uses. Counsel and the deal team agree the definition; the draft is conformed to the term sheet or the difference is approved.
Conflicts and evidence gaps
- X-01 Total debt at close Confirmed conflict Reconcile the two figures before the committee relies on either. The calculations default to the higher, itemised figure.
- X-02 Top customer volumes Potential conflict Ask management for evidence of the customer’s FY2026 orders; test the case with premise P3 rejected.
- X-03 EBITDA: $41.6M vs $46.8M Different reporting basis (not a conflict) None required for consistency. Which definition the covenant uses is a separate question (X-05).
- X-04 PP&E appraisal not provided Missing evidence Obtain the appraisal (committee question Q3).
- X-05 Which EBITDA the leverage covenant uses Unresolved interpretation Counsel and the deal team agree the definition; the draft is conformed to the term sheet or the difference is approved.
Active warnings
- Forecast growth well above history and sector outlook: 12.0% growth against 4.0% in FY2025 and a 4.5% sector outlook
- Forecast relies on the top customer renewing: 22% of revenue renews in Q1 2027; the customer has signalled dual-sourcing
- Calculations rely on unverified documents: DOC-03, DOC-05 not verified
Source inventory
| ID | Title | Recorded status | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|---|
| DOC-01 | Audited financial statements FY2025 | verified | 7881d86346c9d53f53394f8d8fc0a11c2894afcb1f9e7de1eae3a72a3275ecce |
| DOC-02 | Management forecast FY2026 | unverified | 73232bfd86a0b96421c4fb92cb7f23b87b74a196a20039a3950a45da60326dbe |
| DOC-03 | Pro forma debt schedule at close | unverified | 64263f2e0991c11054d155fd0a73d6bdd6d7ac2eeeb72d882afd37a6ee2789c0 |
| DOC-04 | Credit memo (draft for committee) | unverified | 8236b02741ff274abab84e6953928588006978230f5797c71ec7dbaf345c4af0 |
| DOC-05 | Draft loan agreement (financial covenants) | unverified | afbe7848997bde0c17d343813557342ee5930d20997171feece2be843676cecc |
| DOC-06 | Covenant definitions schedule (term sheet) | unverified | f154d4cb10fe370e2f14d6112187538ece31f995b470d46eaf2cfe5a9ab86e34 |
| DOC-07 | Customer concentration report | unverified | 34230621b4ea44c49e25d862b76db8ad6560942d69eb31f4da90944d414aa9b9 |
| DOC-08 | Collateral summary | unverified | 6abc6a976c8978285cb5e92c5b214539277b8e9230357e4b0ee64f66b1b0ee78 |
| DOC-09 | Independent assessment note | unverified | 4ffc6959a461b51972ba1a9dbcb23f6766c34007fb3ccaf040da663022cdd14d |
| DOC-10 | Risk committee questions | verified | e39ad77e7b361167a3349664bc0f743164167275d873b8fdea0b0016c2fa45e5 |
Audit history and reproducibility
- 2026-10-21T01:52:51Z · passport_generated: From case DT-PC-001 v1.0.0 (archived, sha256 248623021f23b82b…) with ruleset dr-rules-1.0.0.
Open this passport ID at /institutional/decision-room/passport/{id} or call GET /api/institutional/decision-room/passport/verify?id={id}&sha256={hash}. The ID encodes the case version, the engine version and every input; the passport is rebuilt from that archived case version with that frozen engine, so the same passport and hash are produced with no stored state.